Free tool · Robert × Dor
Why are my
sales down?
Compare two periods and see how much of the change came from fewer visitors, fewer of them buying, or smaller baskets, with the math shown and a plain-English verdict.
Sales decline diagnostic
Sales change
−14.3%
Sales are down 14.3% (−$8,200). The biggest driver is conversion, worth $5,051 of the drop.
| Metric | Before | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Visitors | 5,200 | 5,000 |
| Conversion | 22.00% | 20.00% |
| Avg transaction | $50.00 | $49.00 |
| Sales | $57,200 | $49,000 |
Where to look first: conversion
People still came in, but fewer of them bought. That points inside the store: too few staff in busy hours, queues, stock gaps, sizes or price. Check which hours converted worst.
Show your work
Sales = visitors × conversion × average transactionnow: 5,000 × 20.00% × $49.00 = $49,000Weight L = (sales now − sales before) ÷ ln(sales now ÷ sales before)($49,000 − $57,200) ÷ ln(0.8566) = $52,994Effect of each factor = L × ln(factor now ÷ factor before)Traffic: $52,994 × ln(0.9615) = −$2,078 · Conversion: $52,994 × ln(0.9091) = −$5,051 · Avg transaction: $52,994 × ln(0.9800) = −$1,071Check: effects add up to the total change−$2,078 −$5,051 −$1,071 = −$8,200
This log-mean (LMDI) split gives the same answer whichever factor you change first, and leaves no unexplained remainder.
Worked example.
Last year in October a store had 5,200 visitors, 1,144 transactions and $57,200 in sales. This October: 5,000 visitors, 1,000 transactions and $49,000. Sales are down $8,200, or 14.3%.
- Traffic fell 3.8% (5,200 → 5,000).
- Conversion fell from 22.0% to 20.0%, a 9.1% relative drop.
- Average transaction fell from $50.00 to $49.00, down 2%.
- Multiplied together: 0.962 × 0.909 × 0.980 = 0.857, which is the 14.3% drop.
Split into dollars, conversion accounts for well over half of the decline. The instinct would be to spend on marketing to win traffic back, but most of the money was lost on people who were already in the store.
Why sales go down: the three levers.
Every store’s sales are visitors × conversion × average transaction. A drop in sales is always one or more of those three moving, and each has different causes and fixes.
- Traffic: marketing, season, weather, local events, competition, visibility.
- Conversion: staff coverage, queues, availability, layout, pricing.
- Average transaction: mix, discounting, bundles, add-on selling.
Your POS gives you transactions and sales. Only a visitor count splits transactions into traffic and conversion.
Questions retailers ask.
Why are my retail sales down?
Sales fall when fewer people come in, when fewer visitors buy, or when buyers spend less. Enter both periods here to see which of the three moved and by how many dollars.
How is the sales change split between traffic, conversion and average transaction?
Sales = visitors × conversion × average transaction. The tool uses a log-mean (LMDI) decomposition: each factor’s effect is the log-mean of the two sales figures times the log of that factor’s change. The effects add up exactly to the total.
What if I don’t have visitor counts?
Choose ‘POS only’ and the tool splits the change into transactions and average transaction. You’ll see that fewer sales happened, but not whether fewer people came in or more of them left without buying.
Which periods should I compare?
Comparable ones: the same weeks last year to remove seasonality, or two recent months if nothing seasonal changed. Make sure both cover the same days open and the same stores.
My traffic is down. What should I do?
Look outside the store first: promotions, local events, weather, roadworks, and your window and signage. Then make sure the visitors you do get are converting, because that’s the lever you control most directly.
My conversion is down. What should I do?
Find the hours where it dropped most. Low conversion in busy hours usually means not enough staff or long queues; low conversion all day often points to stock, sizes or price.
Know which lever moved, every week.
Dor pairs door counts with your POS, so traffic, conversion and average transaction are split for you by store, day and hour.
Book a Dor demo (opens dorhq.com in a new tab)